Predicted and Actual Household Loss: Insights into Geophysical Vulnerability and Community Perceptions of Coastal Erosion Risks in Bangladesh

Coastal Bangladesh has one of the highest rates of coastal shoreline erosion in the world. Erosion causes numerous problems including population displacement and loss of houses and household assets, productive lands, infrastructure, and livelihoods. Due to climate change and associated sea level rise, it is expected that erosion intensity and magnitude will increase in the future. This study aims to advance the understanding of the drivers of erosion risk perception using spatially explicit measures of coastal erosion risk derived from satellite imagery and a random survey of 407 residents of the eastern bank of the Meghna Estuary. Prior empirical work has documented that the Meghna Estuary in coastal Bangladesh has experienced extreme rates of erosion since 2000. With an aim to assess the drivers of risk perceptions, this study uses Logistic Regression (LR) modeling to examine the roles of demographic, economic and location variables as predictors of accurate or inaccurate perceptions of subsequently measured erosion occurrence. Results suggest that the accurate prediction of erosion risk by surveyed households is significantly influenced by the physical location of the house. Further, predictors such as proximity to the coast and whether respondents’ house locations were unprotected by a recently constructed revetment are strongly associated with the accurate prediction of coastal erosion risk. This study highlights the critical role socio-economic and locational attributes play in risk perception at the household scale. Findings of this study inform the need to raise awareness for better planning and management of coastal areas and thus resilience of coastal populations to a changing climate. Research findings can also assist in the development of associated mitigation and adaptation measures that better incorporate community perceptions of risk.